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Comparison of Volumetric and Linear Serial CT Assessments of Lung Metastases in Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients in a Clinical Phase IIB Study

Rationale and Objectives

Accuracy of radiologic assessment may have a crucial impact on clinical studies and therapeutic decisions. We compared the variability of a central radiologic assessment (RECIST) and computer-aided volume-based assessment of lung lesions in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC).

Materials and Methods

The investigation was prospectively planned as a substudy of a clinical randomized phase IIB therapeutic trial in patients with RCC. Starting with the manual study diameter (SDM) of the central readers using RECIST in the clinical study, we performed computer-aided volume measurements. We compared SDM to an automated RECIST diameter (aRDM) and the diameter of a volume-equivalent sphere (effective diameter [EDM]), both for the individual size measurements and for the change rate (CR) between consecutive time points. One hundred thirty diameter pairs of 30 lung lesions from 14 patients were evaluable, forming 55 change pairs over two consecutive time points each.

Results

The SDMs of two different readers showed a correlation of 95.6%, whereas the EDMs exhibited an excellent correlation of 99.4%. Evaluation of CRs showed an SDM-CR correlation of 63.9%, which is substantially weaker than the EDM-CR correlation of 87.6%. The variability of SDM-CR is characterized by a median absolute difference of 11.4% points versus the significantly lower 1.8% points EDM-CRs variability (aRDM: 3.2% points). The limits of agreement between readers suggest that an EDM change of 10% or 1 mm can already be significant.

Conclusions

Computer-aided volume-based assessments result in markedly reduced variability of parameters describing size and change, which may offer an advantage of earlier response evaluations and treatment decisions for patients.

Clinical oncologic development studies have sought to improve the precision of radiology assessments and to reduce the inter-reader variability impacting on study endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), or response rate by using a central blinded radiology review. Although this standardized approach entailing two-skilled readers and an adjudicator in case of divergent results has increased the data quality, further improvement may be of high interest. It has been documented that intraobserver and interobserver variability of radiologic assessment (RECIST) measurements of lung lesions is considerable and may lead to significant misclassifications . However, it has also been shown that computer-aided volumetric assessment of lung nodules may allow a reliable classification as progressive disease (PD) at a volume increase of 27%, as opposed to 73% (73% volumetric increase correspond to 20% increase in the sum of longest diameters) that is required by RECIST .

In this study, we investigate in more detail how computer-aided assessment of lung lesions reduces the measurement variability compared to manual measurements of in-plane lesion diameters as performed in clinical trials according to RECIST. Furthermore, we put a special focus on how this reduction translates to the variability of change rates (CRs) computed from follow-up measurements and whether the RECIST thresholds could be adapted.

Material and methods

Material

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EDM :=(6πVolume)1/3 EDM :

=

(

6

π

Volume

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1

/

3

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Methods

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Results

Analysis of Size Measurements

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Figure 1, Scatter plots of relative differences in two size measurements at the same time point per lesion for (a) manual study diameters, (b) automated radiologic assessment (RECIST) measurements, and (c) effective diameter (DM) of segmented lesion volumes. Values for b + c were derived using manual study diameter (SDM) strokes drawn by the readers to initialize the semiautomatic volumetry software, yielding effective diameter (EDM) and automated RECIST diameter (aRDM). Gray lines indicate one and two sigma confidence intervals.

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Table 1

Statistics of Size Measurement Variability in Three Types of Diameters Measured Twice on Each Combination of Lesion and Time Point

N = 130 Pairs Per Diameter Type SDM aRDM EDM Pearson’s correlation ρ 95.6% 99.0% 99.4% Mean absolute values of relative difference 13.5% 4.27% 2.97% Median absolute values of relative difference 12.6% 1.55% 1.44% 2-sigma confidence intervals of relative differences ±33.0% ±15.0% ±10.5% 2-sigma confidence intervals of mm differences ±3.4 mm ±1.6 mm ±0.94 mm Mean absolute difference 1.39 mm 0.49 mm 0.29 mm Median absolute difference 1.08 mm 0.20 mm 0.14 mm

aRDM, automatic RECIST diameter; EDM, effective diameter; SDM, manual study diameter.

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Analysis of Change Measurements

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Figure 2, Scatter plot of change rates derived from diameter measurements. Points outside the gray areas would indicate disagreement about the radiologic assessment (RECIST) classification between readers, if only the measured lesion was considered. The gray lines indicate a band of 1 resp. 2 standard deviations of the differences between computed change rates according to the two readers. aRDM, automated RECIST diameter; c: EDM, effective diameter derived from volumes. We use the RECIST acronyms: PD, progressive disease; PR, partial response; SD, stable disease.

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Table 2

Statistics of Change Measurement Variability: Correlation and Percentiles of Changes Measured as Relative Changes and Absolute Changes in Milimeter (= Differences of Diameters)

N = 55 Pairs of Change Types SDM aRDM EDM Pearson Correlation 63.9% 80.8% 87.6% Mean / median absolute difference of %- changes 13.3% / 11.4%-pts 5.8% / 3.2%-pts 4.1% / 1.8%-pts Mean / median absolute difference in mm 1.42 / 1.15 mm 0.67 / 0.40 mm 0.42 / 0.22 mm 2-sigma confidence intervals of change rate in % ±33.3%-pts ±19.2%-pts ±13.9%-pts 2-sigma confidence intervals of change in mm ±3.54 mm ±2.05 mm ±1.22 mm 5% & 95% percentiles of difference in % [−24.3%, 30.6%] [−15.6%, 12.6%] [−7.7%, 12.7%] 5% & 95% percentiles of difference in mm-change [−2.8, 2.9 mm] [−1.7, 2.3 mm] [−0.7, 1.3 mm]

aRDM, automatic RECIST diameter; EDM, effective diameter; SDM, manual study diameter.

Standard deviation, %5 and 95% percentiles based on signed differences between readers, as well as means and medians of the absolute values of those differences are computed.

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Discussion

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Acknowledgments

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