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Decision Analytic Model for Evaluation of Suspected Coronary Disease with Stress Testing and Coronary CT Angiography

Rationale and Objectives

The aim of this study was to apply a decision analytic model for the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD) to define the optimal utilization of coronary computed tomographic angiography (cCTA) and stress testing.

Materials and Methods

The model tested in this study assumes that CAD is evaluated with a stress test and/or cCTA and that a patient with positive evaluation results undergoes cardiac catheterization. On the basis of values of sensitivity, specificity, and radiation dose from the published literature and test costs from the Medicare fee schedule, a decision tree model was constructed as a function of disease prevalence.

Results

The false-negative rate is lowest when cCTA is used as an isolated test. The false-positive rate is minimized when cCTA is used in combination with stress echocardiography. Effective radiation is minimized by use of stress electrocardiography or stress echocardiography alone or prior to cCTA. When the pretest probability of CAD is low, a strategy that uses stress echocardiography followed by cCTA minimizes the false-positive rate and effective radiation exposure, with relatively low imaging costs and with a false-negative rate only slightly higher than a strategy including stress myocardial scintigraphy. As the pretest probability of CAD increases above 20%, the false-negative rate of stress echocardiography followed by cCTA increases by >5% relative to cCTA alone.

Conclusion

Effective radiation dose and imaging costs for the workup of CAD may be minimized by an appropriate combination of stress testing and cCTA. A strategy that uses stress echocardiography followed by cCTA is most appropriate for the evaluation of low-risk patients with CAD with a pretest probability < 20%, while cCTA alone may be more appropriate in intermediate-risk patients.

Although the age-adjusted death rate from heart disease has been declining slowly over the past 50 years, heart disease remains the most common cause of death in the United States and was responsible for 26% of all deaths in 2006 . Atherosclerotic disease of the coronary arteries remains the most important etiology of heart disease. The evaluation of suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) should always begin with an appropriate history, physical examination, and electrocardiography (ECG). In stable, symptomatic patients, evaluation for CAD often progresses to noninvasive stress testing. Stress testing provides a physiologic evaluation of cardiac function and serves as a diagnostic study and prognostic marker for future coronary events .

Coronary computed tomographic angiography (cCTA) provides a noninvasive alternative to cardiac catheterization for the visualization of coronary anatomy and has demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity for the anatomic presence of CAD . Although functional information about wall motion can be obtained during cCTA, the primary utility of cCTA is for imaging the coronary arteries to define the presence of CAD. Stress testing provides additional information to predict the functional relevance of coronary stenosis with respect to myocardial ischemia . When cCTA demonstrates coronary stenosis of uncertain hemodynamic significance, a follow-up stress test may evaluate the functional significance of CAD found by cCTA. Given the divergent emphases of stress testing on functional physiology and cCTA on coronary anatomy, these two modalities may provide complementary information in the evaluation of CAD .

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Materials and methods

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Figure 1, Decision tree for the workup of symptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD). The decision tree begins on the left side with a decision node (rectangular box), in which a CAD workup strategy is chosen. The option at the very top of the tree corresponds to no advanced testing, such that all patients are treated medically (medical Rx). The option at the bottom of the tree corresponds to cardiac catheterization (cath) for all patients. The remaining workup options include evaluation with a stress test and/or coronary computed tomographic angiography (cCTA). Each noninvasive test is identified by a round “chance” node that uses the sensitivity and specificity associated with the test to propagate positive and negative detection rates down the tree. At the terminal points of the tree (arrows), the effective radiation dose and imaging cost for each pathway are computed. The focus of this study is to distinguish the strengths and weaknesses of these various workup options. ECG, electrocardiography; echo, echocardiography.

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Table 1

Sensitivity and Specificity Values Used for Decision Analysis

Modality Sensitivity (by Patient) Specificity (by Patient) Stress ECG 0.68 0.77 Stress echocardiography 0.76 0.88 Stress MPS 0.88 0.77 cCTA Base model: Budoff et al 0.95 0.83 Low specificity: Meijboom et al 0.99 0.64 High specificity: Miller et al 0.85 0.90 Meta-analysis: Vanhoenacker et al 0.99 0.93

cCTA, coronary computed tomographic angiography; ECG, electro-cardiography; MPS, myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

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Table 2

Effective Radiation Dose

Reference Effective Radiation Dose (mSv) Stress MPS 9.4–12.0 cCTA 4.2–10.0 Cardiac catheterization 5–7

cCTA, coronary computed tomographic angiography; MPS, myo-cardial perfusion scintigraphy.

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Table 3

Diagnostic Testing and Imaging Costs

Diagnostic Test_CPT_ Codes Medicare Fee Schedule Stress ECG 93015 $110 Stress echocardiography 93015, 93351 $415 Stress MPS 78465, 78478, 78480 $662 cCTA 0146T, 0151T $681 Cardiac catheterization Physician fee 93510, 93543, 93556, 93545 $354.29 Facility fee National average facility fee $2594 Total Physician fee + facility fee $2948.29

cCTA, coronary computed tomographic angiography; CPT , Current Procedural Terminology ; ECG, electrocardiography; MPS, myocar-dial perfusion scintigraphy.

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Results

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Figure 2, False-negative workup rates for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) using baseline assumptions of sensitivity and specificity from Budoff et al (12) . cCTA, coronary computed tomographic angiography; ECG, electrocardiography; echo, echocardiography; MPS, myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

Figure 3, False-positive workup rates for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) using baseline assumptions of sensitivity and specificity from Budoff et al (12) . cCTA, coronary computed tomographic angiography; ECG, electrocardiography; echo, echocardiography; MPS, myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

Table 4

Positive and Negative Testing Rates as a Function of Disease Prevalence

Workup Strategy CAD Prevalence (%) TPR (%) TNR (%) FPR (%) FNR (%) Stress ECG 1 0.68 76 23 0.32 Stress echocardiography 1 0.76 87 12 0.24 Stress nuclear 1 0.88 76 23 0.12 cCTA 1 0.95 82 17 0.05 cCTA » stress ECG 1 0.65 95 3.9 0.35 cCTA » stress echocardiography 1 0.72 97 2.0 0.28 cCTA » stress nuclear 1 0.84 95 3.9 0.16 Stress ECG » cCTA 1 0.65 95 3.9 0.35 Stress echocardiography » cCTA 1 0.72 97 2.0 0.28 Stress nuclear » cCTA 1 0.84 95 3.9 0.16 Stress ECG 20 13.6 61.6 18.4 6.4 Stress echocardiography 20 15.2 70.4 9.6 4.8 Stress nuclear 20 17.6 61.6 18.4 2.4 cCTA 20 19.0 66.4 13.6 1 cCTA » stress ECG 20 12.9 76.9 3.1 7.1 cCTA » stress echocardiography 20 14.4 78.4 1.6 5.6 cCTA » stress nuclear 20 16.7 76.9 3.1 3.3 Stress ECG » cCTA 20 12.9 76.9 3.1 7.1 Stress echocardiography » cCTA 20 14.4 78.4 1.6 5.6 Stress nuclear » cCTA 20 16.7 76.9 3.1 3.3 Stress ECG 50 34 38.5 11.5 16 Stress echocardiography 50 38 44.0 6.0 12 Stress nuclear 50 44 38.5 11.5 6 cCTA 50 47.5 41.5 8.5 2.5 cCTA » stress ECG 50 32.3 48.0 2.0 17.7 cCTA » stress echocardiography 50 36.1 49.0 1.0 13.9 cCTA » stress nuclear 50 41.8 48.0 2.0 8.2 Stress ECG » cCTA 50 32.3 48.0 2.0 17.7 Stress echocardiography » cCTA 50 36.1 49.0 1.0 13.9 Stress nuclear » cCTA 50 41.8 48.0 2.0 8.2

CAD, Coronary artery disease; cCTA, coronary computed tomographic angiography; ECG, electrocardiography; FNR, false-negative rate; FPR, false-positive rate; MPS, myocardial perfusion scintigraphy; TNR, true-negative rate; TPR, true-positive rate.

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Figure 4, Effective radiation dose for the evaluation of suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) using baseline assumptions of sensitivity and specificity from Budoff et al (12) and effective radiation doses of 4.2 mSv for coronary computed tomographic angiography (cCTA), 12 mSv for stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS), and 7 mSv for cardiac catheterization. ECG, electrocardiography; echo, echocardiography.

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Figure 5, Imaging costs for the evaluation of suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) using baseline assumptions of sensitivity and specificity from Budoff et al (12) . cCTA, coronary computed tomographic angiography; ECG, electrocardiography; echo, echocardiography; MPS, myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

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Figure 6, Sensitivity analysis for effective radiation dose in the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD). (a) Expected dose using lower estimates for effective radiation for stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS; 9.4 mSv) and cardiac catheterization (5 mSv). (b) Expected dose using a higher estimate for effective radiation for coronary computed tomographic angiography (cCTA; 10.0 mSv). (c) Expected dose using lower estimates for effective radiation for stress MPS (9.4 mSv) and cardiac catheterization (5 mSv) in combination with a higher estimate for effective radiation for cCTA (10.0 mSv). (d) Expected dose on the basis of the data of Meijboom et al (13) and our baseline assumptions of effective radiation doses of 4.2 mSv for cCTA, 12 mSv for stress MPS, and 7 mSv for cardiac catheterization. (e) Expected dose on the basis of the data of Miller et al (14) and our baseline assumptions of effective radiation doses of 4.2 mSv for cCTA, 12 mSv for stress MPS, and 7 mSv for cardiac catheterization. ECG, electrocardiography; echo, echocardiography.

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Figure 7, Sensitivity analysis for expected imaging costs in the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD). (a) Expected imaging costs on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity data of Meijboom et al (13) . (b) Expected imaging costs on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity data of Miller et al (14) . (c) Expected imaging costs on the basis of higher values of sensitivity and specificity in the meta-analysis of Vanhoenacker et al (3) .

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Discussion

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