Rationale and Objectives
The radiology job market has been described as highly variable, and recent practice hiring surveys predict that the number of available jobs will remain flat. Radiologists may be working more hours and retiring later than desired, activities that influence overall job availability. A national survey was performed to determine the desired work rate and retirement preferences of practicing radiologists, and the responses are used to estimate current and potential future work output and future workforce needs.
Materials and Methods
Practicing radiologists were surveyed regarding current and preferred work level and desired and expected retirement age. A model incorporating these preferences and stratified by age was developed using survey responses and American Medical Association full-time equivalent (FTE) estimates. Available FTE radiologists are estimated under four scenarios from 2016 to 2031 in 5-year intervals.
Results
The model predicts a total of 26,362 FTE radiologists available in 2011, which corresponds to previous estimates. Participants reported working more hours and expecting to retire later than desired, with younger radiologists and women reporting the greatest desired decrease in FTE hours worked. Under each scenario, there is an initial FTE availability in 2016 ranging from 21,156 to 24,537, which increases to between 27,753 and 31,435 FTE by 2031 depending on work rate and retirement patterns.
Conclusions
Practicing radiologists report that they currently work more hours than desired and expect to retire later than they would prefer. If radiologists changed current personal work rate and expected retirement age to meet these preferences, there would be an immediate shortage of FTE radiologists continuing until at least 2020 assuming no other workforce needs changes.
There is currently significant uncertainty regarding the appropriate size of the radiology workforce and the impact of numerous internal and external factors on the availability of jobs . The overall job market has been highly variable over the previous 20 years with extremes of both surplus and shortage , and responses to these imbalances often take several years . Two consecutive yearly practice leader hiring surveys estimate that current demand for radiologists is essentially flat and almost precisely matches the number of new trainees entering the workforce each year .
The exact workforce needs remain difficult to determine but can be useful for practice managers and administrators when estimating staffing requirements. National survey data are used to estimate the full-time equivalent (FTE) hours worked and retirement preferences of currently practicing radiologists. Current and future work output and workforce are modeled under several different possible scenarios using radiologists’ self-reported preferences for part-time employment and early retirement.
Materials and methods
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Table 1
Full-time Equivalent (FTE) Weighting for Survey Participant Self-reported Current Work Rates
Response to “Current Time Worked” Weight for Calculated Percent Effort (FTE) Full time 1.0 >80% 0.9 60%–80% 0.7 40%–60% 0.5 <40% 0.2
Table 2
Comparing Calculated Current and Desired Percent Full-time Equivalent (FTE) Effort for Gender and Generation
Gender Period Born Current Percent Effort FTE Desired Percent Effort FTE Female 1925–1945 77.65 74.38 1946–1963 91.01 77.48 1964–1980 91.30 77.76 Male 1925–1945 77.24 69.15 1946–1963 95.54 83.09 1964–1980 99.48 94.00
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Results
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Discussion
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Conclusions
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Acknowledgments
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